Weekly Recap: A Strong Start to 2024
Breaking down last week's predictions, analyzing what worked, and sharing key takeaways for the coming weeks.
Weekly Recap: A Strong Start to 2024
Another week in the books, and the analytics continue to deliver. Let's break down the results.
By The Numbers
- Total Picks: 12
- Wins: 9
- Losses: 3
- Win Rate: 75%
- ROI: +18.2%
What Worked
NBA Unders Hit Big
The model identified several games where pace projections were inflated. Teams coming off back-to-backs consistently came out flat in the first half, leading to lower-scoring affairs.
Fade the Public
Public favorites went 4-8 ATS this week. The line movement data correctly identified inflated spreads on popular teams.
What Didn't Work
Two losses came from garbage time collapses – statistical noise that's hard to predict. One loss was simply variance – the right side of a 52% expected value play.
Key Takeaway
Long-term success isn't about winning every bet. It's about consistently finding positive expected value and letting the math work over time.
Next week, we're focusing heavily on conference play matchups where the sample size is finally large enough to trust the data.